Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Six Desert Plants in China
Jianguo Wu, Jiajia Lü, Qiaofu Zhou
Chin Bull Bot. 2010, 45(06):
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Understanding the effects of climate change on the distribution of species is crucial for the conservation of biodiversity. The effects of climate change on the distribution patterns of Anabasis brevifolia, Gymnocarpos przewalskii, Haloxylon ammodendron, Ephedra przewalskii, Ceratoides latens and Ephedra przewalskii var. kaschgarica in China were analyzed by using the classification and regression tree (CART) niche model and climate change scenarios of A2 and B2. Climate change in China will decrease the current distribution of these plants greatly. A. brevifolia or H. ammodendron will show a new suitable distribution or total suitable distribution region that will increase from 1991–2020 to 2051–2080, then will decrease from 2051–2080 to 2081–2100, whereas the new suitable distribution or total suitable distribution region of the other plants will decrease from 1991–2020 to 2081–2100. In addition, the current distribution region of E. przewalskii var. kaschgarica or C. latens will be fragmented; the southwest, southeast or south region of the current distribution of the other plants will be reduced; and the new regions will expand towards west or northwest, north, northeast of the current distribution region, towards the southwest region of Qinghai province, Konglun mountains, A ErJin mountain or Qilian mountain. The change in the current distribution, new suitable distribution or total suitable distribution region of the plants is poorly related to the change in annual mean air temperature or precipitation in China, except for the correlation between the distribution region of C. latens or E. przewalskii var. kaschgarica and change in annual mean temperature in China. The linear regression relationship between the change in the distribution region of plants and annual mean temperature or annual mean precipitation in China was poor, except for the relationship between the change in the distribution region of C. latens or E. przewalskii var. kaschgarica or the current distribution region of G. przewalskii and change in annual mean air temperature or annual precipitation in China. Climate change in China will cause a change in spatial distribution pattern of plants and decrease the current distribution region and increase the new suitable distribution region of the plants in the near future. With the increasing extent of climate change, climate change in China will cause a decrease in expanding distribution region or total distribution region.